Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST9 in Pigs in Thailand

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an important nosocomial and community-associated pathogen. Recently, livestock-associated MRSA (LA-MRSA) has emerged and disseminated in Europe and North America and now constitutes a considerable zoonotic burden in humans with risk factors of pig exposure, whereas the extent of the livestock reservoir is relatively unknown on other continents. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From March through April 2011, MRSA was identified in pigs from 3 out of 30 production holdings in Chang Mai Province, Thailand. Representative isolates were subjected to molecular characterization and antimicrobial susceptibility testing; all isolates had genotypic and phenotypic characteristics of LA-MRSA previously characterized in the region: they belonged to ST9, lacked the lukF-lukS genes encoding Panton-Valentine leukocidin, and were resistant to multiple non-β-lactam antimicrobials. However, unlike other Asian LA-MRSA-ST9 variants, they were spa type t337 and harbored a different staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec IX. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A novel MRSA-ST9 lineage has been established in the pig population of Thailand, which differs substantially from LA-MRSA lineages found in other areas of the continent. The emergence of novel LA-MRSA lineages in the animal agriculture setting is worrisome and poses a serious threat to global public health

Serological Response to the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus for Disease Diagnosis and Estimating the Infection Rate in Thai Population

BACKGROUND: Individuals infected with the 2009 pandemic virus A(H1N1) developed serological response which can be measured by hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (microNT) assays. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MicroNT and HI assays for specific antibody to the 2009 pandemic virus were conducted in serum samples collected at the end of the first epidemic wave from various groups of Thai people: laboratory confirmed cases, blood donors and health care workers (HCW) in Bangkok and neighboring province, general population in the North and the South, as well as archival sera collected at pre- and post-vaccination from vaccinees who received influenza vaccine of the 2006 season. This study demonstrated that goose erythrocytes yielded comparable HI antibody titer as compared to turkey erythrocytes. In contrast to the standard protocol, our investigation found out the necessity to eliminate nonspecific inhibitor present in the test sera by receptor destroying enzyme (RDE) prior to performing microNT assay. The investigation in pre-pandemic serum samples showed that HI antibody was more specific to the 2009 pandemic virus than NT antibody. Based on data from pre-pandemic sera together with those from the laboratory confirmed cases, HI antibody titers ≥ 40 for adults and ≥ 20 for children could be used as the cut-off level to differentiate between the individuals with or without past infection by the 2009 pandemic virus. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on the cut-off criteria, the infection rates of 7 and 12.8% were estimated in blood donors and HCW, respectively after the first wave of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Among general population, the infection rate of 58.6% was found in children versus 3.1% in adults

Cultural drivers and health-seeking behaviours that impact on the transmission of pig-associated zoonoses in Lao People's Democratic Republic

Pig rearing is an important income source in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), with many smallholder farmers using traditional free-range pig production systems. Despite the potentially significant health risks posed by pig production regarding pig-associated zoonoses, information on the sociocultural drivers of these zoonoses is significantly lacking. This review summarises the existing sociocultural knowledge on eight pig-associated zoonoses suspected to be endemic in Southeast Asia: brucellosis, Q fever (Coxiella burnetii), trichinellosis, hepatitis E virus, leptospirosis, Japanese encephalitis, Streptococcus suis and Taenia solium taeniasis-cysticercosis. It summarises current knowledge on these diseases grouped according to their clinical manifestations in humans to highlight the propensity for underreporting. A literature search was conducted across multiple databases for publications from 1990 to the present day related to the eight pig-associated zoonoses and the risk and impact connected with them, with Lao PDR as a case study. Many of these pig-associated zoonoses have similar presentations and are often diagnosed as clinical syndromes. Misdiagnosis and underreporting are, therefore, substantial and emphasise the need for more robust diagnostics and appropriate surveillance systems. While some reports exist in other countries in the region, information is significantly lacking in Lao PDR with existing information coming mainly from the capital, Vientiane. The disease burden imposed by these zoonoses is not only characterised by morbidity and mortality, but directly impacts on livelihoods through income reduction and production losses, and indirectly through treatment costs and lost work opportunities. Other factors crucial to understanding and controlling these diseases are the influence of ethnicity and culture on food-consumption practices, pig rearing and slaughter practices, hygiene and sanitation, health-seeking behaviours and, therefore, risk factors for disease transmission. Published information on the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of people regarding pig zoonoses and their risk factors is also extremely limited in Lao PDR and the broader Southeast Asian region. The need for more transdisciplinary research, using a One Health approach, in order to understand the underlining social determinants of health and their impacts on health-seeking behaviours, disease transmission and, ultimately, disease reporting, cannot be more emphasized

Antibiotic use in poultry: a survey of eight farms in Thailand

To investigate antibiotic use in poultry farms in Thailand and estimate the total amount of antibiotics used annually in Thai production of chicken meat.In a single province, we surveyed eight farms in which chickens were raised for meat and interviewed the farms' owners in 2016. The antibiotic use for each chicken was defined as the amount of antibiotic given to the chicken over its entire lifetime divided by the target weight of the chicken at the time of its slaughter. Assuming that the results were nationally representative, we estimated annual antibiotic use on all Thai chickens raised for meat.No use of antibiotics for growth promotion was reported. Five farms raised 1-kg chickens for company A and reportedly used no antibiotics unless the chickens were sick. The other three farms raised 3-kg chickens for company B and reported routine use of antibiotics for prophylaxis. Per kg final weight, each chicken raised for company B was reportedly routinely given a mean of 101 mg of antibiotics - that is, 33 mg of amoxicillin, 29 mg colistin, 19 mg oxytetracycline, 18 mg doxycycline and 2 mg tilmicosin. The total amount of antibiotic used on all Thai chickens raised for meat in 2016 was estimated to be 161 tonnes.Each year in Thailand, many tonnes of antibiotics are probably routinely used in raising chickens for meat. Labels on retail packs of meat should include data on antibiotic use in the production of the meat

Clinical Epidemiology of 7,126 Melioidosis Patients in Thailand and the Implications for a National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System

Background National notifiable diseases surveillance system (NNDSS) data in developing countries are usually incomplete, yet the total number of fatal cases reported is commonly used in national priority-setting. Melioidosis, an infectious disease caused byandnbsp;Burkholderia pseudomallei, is largely underrecognized by policy-makers due to the underreporting of fatal cases via the NNDSS. Methods Collaborating with the Epidemiology Division (ED), Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), we conducted a retrospective study to determine the incidence and mortality of melioidosis cases already identified by clinical microbiology laboratories nationwide. A case of melioidosis was defined as a patient with any clinical specimen culture positive forandnbsp;B. pseudomallei.andnbsp;Routinely available microbiology and hospital databases of secondary care and tertiary care hospitals, the national death registry, and NNDSS data were obtained for analysis. Results A total of 7126 culture-confirmed melioidosis patients were identified from 2012 to 2015 in 60 hospitals countrywide. The total number of cases diagnosed in Northeast, Central, South, East, North, and West Thailand were 5475, 536, 374, 364, 358, and 19 cases, respectively. The overall 30-day mortality was 39% (2805/7126). Only 126 (4%) deaths were reported to the NNDSS. Age, presentation with bacteremia and pneumonia, prevalence of diabetes, and 30-day mortality differed by geographical region (allandnbsp;Pandnbsp;andlt; .001). The ED at MoPH has agreed to include the findings of our study in the next annual report of the NNDSS. Conclusions Melioidosis is an important cause of death in Thailand nationwide, and its clinical epidemiology may be different by region. In developing countries, NNDSS data can be supplemented by integrating information from readily available routine data sets.</p

The estimated burden of scrub typhus in Thailand from national surveillance data (2003-2018)

Background Scrub typhus is a major cause of acute febrile illness in the tropics and is endemic over large areas of the Asia Pacific region. The national and global burden of scrub typhus remains unclear due to limited data and difficulties surrounding diagnosis. Methodology/Principal findings Scrub typhus reporting data from 2003–2018 were collected from the Thai national disease surveillance system. Additional information including the district, sub-district and village of residence, population, geographical, meteorological and satellite imagery data were also collected for Chiangrai, the province with the highest number of reported cases from 2003–2018. From 2003–2018, 103,345 cases of scrub typhus were reported with the number of reported cases increasing substantially over the observed period. There were more men than women, with agricultural workers the main occupational group affected. The majority of cases occurred in the 15–64 year old age group (72,144/99,543, 72%). Disease burden was greatest in the northern region, accounting for 53% of the total reported cases per year (mean). In the northern region, five provinces–Chiangrai, Chiangmai, Tak, Nan and Mae Hong Son–accounted for 84% (46,927/55,872) of the total cases from the northern region or 45% (46,927/103,345) of cases nationally. The majority of cases occurred from June to November but seasonality was less marked in the southern region. In Chiangrai province, elevation, rainfall, temperature, population size, habitat complexity and diversity of land cover contributed to scrub typhus incidence. Interpretation The burden of scrub typhus in Thailand is high with disease incidence rising significantly over the last two decades. However, disease burden is not uniform with northern provinces particularly affected. Agricultural activity along with geographical, meteorological and land cover factors are likely to contribute to disease incidence. Our report, along with existing epidemiological data, suggests that scrub typhus is the most clinically important rickettsial disease globally

Актуальность и профессиональные аспекты изучения дисциплины «Правоведение в медицинском вузе»

Обсуждаются особенности изучения дисциплины «Правоведение» в медицинском вузе в соответствии с программой Федерального государственного образовательного стандарта высшего профессионального образования при возрастающей потребности в правовых знаниях на современном этапе развития стран